"The DRAM market is expected to grow in 2020 due to supply shortages.Samsung and SK Hynix are expected to perform better than this year.In particular, the mobile DRAM market will adopt 5G (fifth generation mobile communication technology).We expect high growth due to the payload increase."Park yu-ak, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities.
"The DRAM market has fallen to a reasonable level due to production cuts beginning in the second quarter of this year, and demand is expected to recover in the second quarter of next year," Park said.It is expected to show an upward trend."
In addition, the DRAM market is expected to experience an annual shortage of -1% next year."In recent years, the semiconductor market is rapidly running out of inventory and customer inventories will return to normal levels by the end of the year."We expect supply shortages in the DRAM market to continue into the third quarter of next year, and samsung electronics and SK hynix will report better operating profits this year due to higher DRAM prices."
Mobile DRAM is the growth driver of the DRAM market next year.That's because samsung, huawei and apple are expected to increase shipments of 5G smartphones as 5G services are commercialized in the global market.
"Total DRAM demand is expected to reach 18.4 billion gigabytes (GB) in 2020, up 19% from this year," said Park."Compared to this year, 24 percent are smartphones, 27 percent are servers, 12 percent are PCS, 12 percent are TVS.It is expected to grow by about 23 percent.Servers and mobile DRAM, which will directly benefit from 5G growth, are expected to drive demand growth in the industry."
"By 2020, demand for mobile DRAM will reach 6.7 billion GB, huawei will surpass samsung electronics as the largest source, and the top four Chinese companies (huawei, OPPO, Vivo and xiaomi) will surpass most.It is expected that DRAM loads will increase with the introduction of 5G, and 5G smartphones (10-16gb) will have DRAM loads significantly higher than the current 4GB average."
In addition, samsung electronics, hsi semiconductor and mediatek are expected to release 5G communication chips early next year to ease qualcomm's monopoly system and transform it into a system in which four companies compete to reduce the cost burden of 5G smartphones."By 2020, the annual sales of 5G smartphones will reach 177 million, while the demand for mobile DRAM in the high-end smartphone market is expected to grow 45 percent compared with this year.
Server DRAM and PC DRAM markets are also expected to grow.Specifically, the server DRAM market is expected to grow 4% from this year and PC DRAM demand is expected to grow 12%
"Intel's new CPU (CPU) version, apple's OTT market and 5G cloud games will be the catalyst for demand," said Park.Demand has fallen since late 2007 but has been picking up since the end of the second quarter.We expect demand to increase by the end of this year and continue into the first half of next year."
In addition, "PC DRAM is expected to increase DRAM load average by increasing the sales of game PCS in desktop PCS (up to 9 million by 2020), while high-end products for notebook PCS are also increasing rapidly."It's expected to compete in DRAM purchases."
Meanwhile, DRAM manufacturers' capital spending is expected to fall further this year