The semiconductor industry is at a turning point. The slowdown in the development of CMOS technology, coupled with rising costs, has prompted the industry to rely on IC packaging to maintain the progress of Moore's Law. As a result, advanced packaging has entered its most successful period due to the need for high integration, the gradual failure of Moore's Law, the general trend of transportation, 5G, consumer, memory and computing, Internet of Things, AI and high performance computing (HPC).
According to a recent study by market research and strategy consultancy YoleDéveloppement (Yole), after experiencing double-digit growth and achieving record revenues in 2017 and 2018, Yole expects the semiconductor industry to slow down in 2019. However, advanced packaging will continue to grow and grow by about 6% year-on-year. Overall, the advanced packaging market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 8%, reaching nearly $44 billion by 2024. On the contrary, in the same period, the traditional packaging market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.4%, and the entire IC packaging industry CAGR will reach 5%.
Source: Yole Developpement (07/2019)
The highest revenue CAGR for 2.5D/3D TSV IC, ED (laminated substrate) and fan-out packages is expected to be 26%, 49%, 26%, respectively, and mobile and consumer applications account for 2018 in different market segments. 84% of total shipments. Yole believes that by 2024, the average annual compound growth rate will reach 5%, telecommunications and infrastructure are the fastest growing segments of the advanced packaging market (nearly 28%), and its market share will increase from 6% in 2018 to 2024. 15% of the year. In terms of revenue, the automotive and transportation sectors increased their market share from 9% to 11% in 2024.
Advanced packaging requires continuous technological innovation, including equipment and materials.
To meet the performance requirements of next-generation hardware, advanced packaging must drive innovation in processes, materials, and equipment. In fact, advanced packaging accelerates breakthrough technology requirements in substrate fabrication, package assembly, and test engineering. In order to promote the overall growth of advanced packaging, it is necessary to invest in the development of next-generation manufacturing machines, such as thermocompression bonding (TCB), panel-level packaging machines, and substrate UV laser through-holes.
Advanced substrate technology trends.
As for materials, new dielectric materials, molding compounds, underfills, solder interconnects, and thermal interface materials (TIMs) are needed to meet the stringent performance and reliability requirements of next-generation hardware. In addition, the breakthrough demand for package feature expansion has brought a sense of urgency from major suppliers to the semiconductor packaging industry.
In addition, the competition between advanced flip chip and wafer level package (WLP) technology with L/S as low as 5/5 μm, and WLP and 2.5D/3D package technology with L/S below 5/5 μm The competition between the two will also become the highlight of the advanced packaging competition.
All levels of the semiconductor supply chain are changing.
In order to expand the business, explore new areas, and guard against future uncertainties, vendors at all levels of the semiconductor supply chain are expanding different business models. Some integrated equipment manufacturers (IDMs) are entering the foundry business to leverage their front-end expertise and create additional revenue by leveraging their excess capacity. At the same time, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and software/service companies are designing their own chips and controlling the associated equipment and materials supply chain.
In the general trend of betting artificial intelligence, some OSAT vendors are expanding the "fablite" business model. In the past, pure foundries were in the process of acquiring advanced packaging services to provide one-stop solutions for their customers. Other OSAT vendors are developing advanced wafer level and 3D IC packaging capabilities to support expansion and density requirements. At the same time, some OSAT vendors are expanding their testing expertise, while traditional pure test vendors are investing in assembly/packaging capabilities.
On the other hand, substrate manufacturers are using panel-level fan-out packages and organic laminate embedded chips to enter advanced packaging. Electronic Manufacturing Services (EMS) is developing assembly/packaging capabilities to expand the OSAT business. The packaging market as a whole includes several different types of vendors: large-scale manufacturers with mature and advanced technologies; smaller manufacturers with specific advanced technologies; and many mature technology vendors.
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